He’s back! Following his recovery, he is back in business to lead the nation, but not to answer questions in the Commons. Double standards or realisation how much ignorance has costed the nation. In a way, if EU would fail following this pandemic, which concerns I have already voiced, it could save Brexit and give it for once grounds to leave the club. For now, at least, the EU club is doing far better than we do. Fair enough, it is too early to judge and we should perhaps wait till the dust has settled. I agree to the extent that I would be far from calling on sacking any member of the government. You do not change leadership during the battle. At the same time, you don’t ignore what mistakes could clearly be avoided simply by learning on the mistakes of others. The mistakes I am talking about is the lack of preparation. We should not be in the situation that PPE is a shortage, it’s bad planning, poor resource allocation and no risk assessment at all. Blaming a global shortage two months later is just poor. When the risk assessment for the UK was increased from low to moderate why no drastic actions were not taken? With such experiences, I am terrified to think of what post-Brexit Britain is going look like. We supposed to strive to be a world’s leader, yet we have failed to protect our own nation. The UK had such a great opportunity at showing the world how it’s done and prove that it is the country to be regarded as a world’s leader. Especially following US abdication in every possible global project. Such a great opportunity that has been lost. And it makes me so painfully disappointed it’s hard to swallow it. At the same time, China has become both at the same time the world’s biggest villain but also a saviour. At least it comes to Europe. Although help to the US is also visible. There is a chance though. Being the first to create a safe vaccine would be a tremendous step and the table would have turned. At least for the government. That is obviously providing the vaccine would be available to the world on humanitarian bases.
Despite more and more calls to ease the lockdown I am yet to see a comprehensive step by step opinion/analysis on how to do it. I have heard voices that we should just separate the elderly and vulnerable and get on with lives. Great, I agree, let’s do it. Then you hit the wall. Those voicing those opinions have only just that, an opinion. No strategy, no research, no know-how. Matthew Syed is one of those. I did enjoy a couple of his books but was truly stunned by his piece in The Times couple of weeks ago. Then he did another one. I think what Brexit (sorry for the B bomb again) shown us that strategy, analysis and data doesn’t really sell. Optimism, patriotism and get on with it approach is what is truly British and the only thing that matters. It makes me puzzled because I do not remember calls to get on with it during 2007/2008 financial slump when everyone was rushing to support and help banks. Why we weren’t screaming get on with it then but we do when old and vulnerable are at risk and die excessively because of ignorance. Or is just the Torry Fanclub is so strong that we protect our team at all cost? Nevertheless, this more scientific piece in The Times, as to oppose to unscientific Mr Syed’s opinion shows the real difficulty we are facing:
The most vulnerable people are also the people who most need care and have most interaction with the health system and are least able to really be truly isolated. I’m very sceptical we can get to the level of shielding which would make that a viable strategy.
In theory, it might be, but until I see a country or even a community do a better job than we’ve seen so far, then I remain sceptical that it’s achievable. And if you achieve just 80 per cent shielding, 80 per cent reduction in infection risk in those groups, we’d still project you get well over 100,000 deaths later this year through that sort of strategy.
Still over 100,000 deaths by achieving 80% shielding. This is to put in contrast to the government’s high hopes of limiting deaths to 20,000 which has been surpassed towards the end of last week (according to the official data). These calculations are done by the team of Prof. Neil Fergusson of the Imperial College that essentially forced the government to re-think its strategy and lock Britain down. We have to listen to science and find solutions in line with it not ignoring it. Everyone knows we need to lift the restrictions and it is going to be better when they are lifted sooner than later. Open too soon though and we are back in square one. We will then face the same decision governments around the world faced in 1918. The decision is to lockdown again or to simply let people die. I will only say that both scenarios are damaging to the economy.
It is good news, in my opinion, that we have Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation on board. They have confirmed that COVID-19 has the 100% focus of the foundation. Their knowledge, experience and resources are most welcome. More on board, sooner the humanity will win the battle. Financial Times has confirmed this and also included a 22-minutes interview with the top man himself.